Order levels were generally stable in the first quarter of this year and for the third quarter running, according the latest BPIF Printing Outlook report published this week.
58% of respondents to the latest survey, conducted at the beginning of April, report stable order levels close to those forecast three months ago. Output once again moved in tandem with domestic order levels: in fact more firms (two-thirds of those surveyed) reported production unchanged in Q1. However the number that cut output in the period was more than double that producing more.
Although more than half of firms expect stability during Q2 2013 the balance among the remainder was negative, for the first time in five quarters. The forecast for domestic orders through the second quarter is therefore downbeat overall: although the majority (61%) again expect stable demand, more of the remainder believe that demand will fall rather than improve.
Earlier signs that confidence may be returning to the print sector proved to be short-lived. At the time of the last survey, more printers expressed the opinion that trade was improving rather than deteriorating. In Q1, the opposite was true. While the majority registered no change in sentiment levels, the 11% that thought activity in the sector had risen was the lowest figure since the first quarter of 2009 - a period when the UK was firmly in the grip of recession. Predictions for Q2 also remain on the pessimistic side. Again while most expect no change, there is a narrowing of the gap between expectations of a slowing in activity versus a pick-up.
At a time of subdued market conditions, it might be expected that employment levels would fall. In the event however, 80% of respondents stated that numbers employed remained static. Of the remainder, more took on new staff than cut positions. Reflecting similar trends in the wider economy as whole, the positive balance of +6 maintains a solid employment trend for the printing industry and was also better than had been forecast.
It was of some comfort that costs remained stable for most print companies during Q1, with a significant majority reporting no changes. Only 3% saw any change in labour costs. Changes in paper and board costs were also uneventful, with 82% of printers paying neither more nor less. However while most (55%) believe prices will remain at existing levels in the current quarter, 43% anticipate increases on the back of a price push by suppliers. Energy remained the most volatile of the cost areas during the first quarter: just under four-fifths of respondents said that costs were stable but of the remainder 21% were hit by higher energy charges. Although the vast majority of companies (88%) saw stable costs for ink in the period the number that paid more again outweighed those paying less – for the 14th quarter running.